UNLV Economist Predicts Drop in Las Vegas Tourism and Gaming Revenue in 2025–2026

A new report from a UNLV economics professor warns that Las Vegas could see a decline in tourism, gaming revenue, and hotel occupancy in 2025 and 2026 as the U.S. economy slows.

Stephen Miller, director of research at UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER), expects Southern Nevada’s economy to face headwinds in the coming years, even if a full recession is avoided. “The Nevada economy and its tourism sector will hit some bumps in the road,” Miller said. CBER projects modest retrenchment or slower economic growth over the next two years, assuming no major domestic or global economic shocks.

Miller pointed to several stabilizing factors—including no new COVID-19 wave, a potential resolution of the war in Ukraine, and minimal global fallout from the Israel-Hamas conflict—but still expects a gradual contraction through the end of 2026. He believes Las Vegas’ gaming revenue will eventually return to pre-pandemic trends as consumer savings and discretionary income normalize amid rising wages and inflation.

According to CBER’s forecast:

• Visitor volume, up 2.1% through September 2024, is projected to fall 5.8% in 2025 and 6.9% in 2026.

• Gaming revenue, currently up just 0.1% year-to-date, is expected to end 2024 slightly below 2023 levels, then decline 5.4% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026.

“Tourism, gaming revenue, employment, and unemployment in Southern Nevada all follow the national business cycle,” Miller said. “With the Federal Reserve aiming for a soft landing, we expect overall U.S. economic activity to slow, and that directly affects Las Vegas.”

Miller highlighted several economic risks, including high interest rates, consumer debt burdens, softening wage growth, and stress in commercial real estate and corporate debt markets. He also mentioned geopolitical risks like political instability in Washington, rising tensions in the Middle East, and uncertainty in China’s property market as potential threats to broader economic stability.

“These uncertainties will shape the U.S. economy’s trajectory—and, in turn, the outlook for Nevada and Southern Nevada,” Miller said.